The Market Disconnect.

12 May

The Market Disconnect | Billy Jaz McGrath Palm Beach

Market Update · May 2026

The market has shifted. That’s not bad news — it just requires a different approach. Here’s a straight read on what’s actually happening.

3–4

Average groups per inspection (was 10–30)

$38

Weekly saving from govt affordability policy

60–90

Days until official data reflects reality

Buyers have adjusted. Sellers are catching up.

Open home attendance has dropped from an expected 10 to 30 groups down to an average of 3 or 4. Over the past 8 to 9 weeks buyers have been taking longer to decide, visiting more properties and feeling less urgency. That’s a shift, not a collapse.

The properties that are still selling well are the ones that deserve to. Premium location, quality build, honest pricing and a strong campaign. The market hasn’t stopped being selective — it’s just become more so.

The market hasn’t stopped. It’s become selective. That’s a different thing entirely.

The affordability paradox.

The government’s changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing are designed to make housing more accessible for first home buyers. The intention is right, but the numbers tell a more complicated story.

What the affordability policy actually delivers

Price before policy: $950,000 entry level apartment

Price after 10% drop: $850,000 best case scenario

Actual weekly saving: $38 after rate rise from 5.65% to 6.4%

Even in the most optimistic scenario, a 10% price drop offset by rising interest rates, the buyer ends up $38 a week better off. That doesn’t meaningfully change behaviour or affordability perception.

What actually happens next.

The unintended consequences of the May budget may work against its own goals. Fewer investors means less rental stock. Less rental stock pushes rents higher. Higher rents push more renters into the buyer market. More buyers competing for available stock puts upward pressure on prices. The budget was designed to make housing more affordable. The flow-on effects may do the opposite.

What this means for buyers and sellers.

For buyers

Less competition at inspections. Slower decision cycles. Sellers more willing to negotiate. If your finance is sorted and you’re ready to move, the conditions right now are genuinely in your favour.

For sellers

Properties anchored to peak market pricing are sitting. Honest pricing, strong presentation and a quality campaign still achieves strong results. That’s the strategy.

The market has already moved. The data is just catching up. Act on current reality, not yesterday’s numbers.

Navigate this with clarity. Not emotion. The right advice makes all the difference in a transitional market.

Let’s talk honestly