Quarterly market intelligence. July–Sept 2026.
2/27 Biby Street, Tugun
Quarterly Market Intelligence · July–September 2026
The numbers tell you where the market has been. Behaviour tells you where it's going.
This quarter, I've paid less attention to the usual statistics, and more to what buyers and sellers are actually doing differently. A few things stand out.
Buyers Are Searching For Something They Already Have
Despite more property on the market, I still hear the same question: what have you got coming up? Buyers keep chasing off-market opportunities while dismissing what's already available, even though that's often where the better value sits.
An off-market seller hasn't had market feedback to adjust their expectations. A seller who's been listed 30, 60 or 90 days has. The opportunity isn't always what's coming next. It's what everyone's stopped looking at.
Buyers' Agents Are Changing Strategy
Buyers' agents used to push hard to secure a property before it hit the market. Now I'm hearing: let's let it go to market, we'll come back in 30 days.
That's telling. Experienced buyers know exposure is now part of price discovery. Thirty days of inspections, feedback and failed negotiations can shift a seller's expectations considerably.
New Sellers Are Beating Old Sellers
This is the biggest shift I've seen. New sellers are entering the market expecting 40–60 day selling periods, and understanding a result inside 30 days takes genuinely competitive pricing.
Some existing sellers are still anchored to sales from months ago. They drop their price, but the market's already moved again. You can keep reducing and still never catch it.
Valuation Doesn't Always Equal Market Value
I'm also seeing sellers get a valuation after struggling to sell, only for it to land above what buyers are actually willing to pay. That creates friction.
A valuation serves a purpose, but in a shifting market it isn't a guaranteed sale price. The market decides what it's prepared to transact at today.
My Outlook
After September's rate rise, I expect the Palm Beach, Elanora and Currumbin Waters markets to keep recalibrating through the rest of 2026, with a floor possibly forming in the first half of 2027.
My strategy hasn't changed. If I were selling: sell faster, buy slower. If I were buying, I'd make one change: sort listings oldest to newest. Stop fixating on what went up yesterday.
Some of the best value right now sits in properties listed 30, 60 or 90 days ago, where the seller's circumstances and expectations may have shifted considerably.
Everyone wants to know what's coming next. I'd be looking harder at what's already there.
