Is the market beginning to find it’s floor?
Market Intelligence · October 2026
One open home doesn’t change a property market. But sometimes, buyer behaviour tells us more than the statistics.
The Open Home
Over the weekend, we launched a townhouse that we believed could achieve around $800,000 with some cosmetic improvements. Instead, the owner elected to sell in its existing condition, and we went to market at $750,000.
The response was significant.
- 40 groups through the first open home.
- Six offers within three days.
- Sold unconditionally for $785,000.
Was this a sign of improving market conditions, or simply a reflection of compelling pricing? I suspect somewhere between the two.
Historically, the entry-level market is often the first to respond when confidence returns. We witnessed something similar in October last year following the expansion of the First Home Guarantee, when competition intensified at the affordable end before momentum extended into higher price brackets.
Could we be seeing the early signs of the market finding its floor?
Narrowing Expectations
Another observation I’ve made recently is that the gap between buyers’ offers and sellers’ expectations appears to be narrowing, particularly among properties that have been on the market for more than three months.
Offers once considered too low are now receiving serious consideration as sellers adjust their expectations to meet the market.
I think that’s significant.
Sometimes a market finds its floor not because buyers are paying more, but because sellers become prepared to accept what buyers are willing to pay.
This could lead to an improvement in sales volumes before we necessarily see any recovery in property prices.
What To Watch
Looking ahead, November’s interest rate decision could play an important role in determining how the market finishes 2026.
Recent weaker employment figures have complicated the outlook, although inflation concerns mean another rate increase remains a possibility. A decision to hold could support buyer confidence and transaction volumes heading into Christmas, while another increase may prolong the current caution.
So, is the market finding its floor?
It’s too early to say. But stronger competition for well-priced properties, narrowing expectations between buyers and sellers, and the approaching interest rate decision are all worth watching.
The first sign of a market recovery isn’t necessarily rising prices. It’s buyers becoming willing to compete again, and sellers becoming willing to meet them.
And that’s the behaviour I’m watching.
